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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."